A financial institution Trans Unions gave us their quarterly analysis of the new trends in the mortgage industry. They discovered that mortgage loan delinquency increased for the twelfth straight quarter and hit 6.89 percent, which is an all time national average high. This is the only time in American history where delinquency rates increased and did not decelerate after three consecutive periods.
This statistic is normally considered a forerunner to foreclosure and it increased by 10.24 percent from the previous quarter’s 6.25 percent average. The rate at which mortgage borrowers went delinquent is up by about 50 percent, up from 4.58 percent.
Mortgage borrower delinquency rates in the fourth quarter of 2009 were highest in Nevada and Florida while the lowest mortgage delinquency rates were North Dakota, South Dakota and Alaska. Areas that showed the greatest amount of growth in delinquency from the previous quarter were the District of Columbia, Delaware and Louisiana. Every state in the country saw an increase in mortgage delinquency rates.
The information revealed was not completely bad for the mortgage sector in the fourth quarter. Thirty eight Metropolitan Statistical Areas actually showed a decrease in their mortgage loan delinquency rates since the third quarter. Areas in Oregon, Indiana and Pennsylvania boasted the most improved credit conditions.
The variations in delinquency point to the fact that the recession and eventual recovery are both contingent on house price conditions and unemployment levels. A bit of good news is that in the third and fourth quarters of 2008, the median price of single family homes that already existed plummeted to almost seven percent between 2008’s third and fourth quarters, but in 2009 it only dropped -0.4 percent between the third and fourth quarters of 2008.
What does this mean for the future? TransUnion predicts that 60 day mortgage delinquencies will peak between 7.5 and 8 percent over the course of 2010. Additionally, it is believed that Nevada will experience the highest mortgage delinquency rate by the middle of 2010, and North Dakota is expected to continue to show the lowest mortgage delinquency rate by the summer.
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